9. Supply projections for beef in Pakistan by the year 2030 AD
Abstract
The supply projection for beef in Pakistan by the year 2030 AD has been made on the basis of time series data of the time period from 1980-81 to 2011-12. This study has been designed to estimate the beef meat projection supply chain in next decade in Pakistan. Both linear regression and polynomial price lag models are employed to analyze the effects of various factors on beef supply in the country. It is found that higher beef prices stimulate its production in the country. Availability of cattle and buffalo animal units for beef production also contributes positively and significantly to the production. Cattle and buffalo are good converters of fodder into products of highly nutritive value, thus increase in fodder prices has not affected beef production in the past and may not affect it to a large extent in future. However, a little impairment in the production technology for beef has been observed over time. It is projected that beef supply would be 2532 and 2535 thousand tones under linear and polynomial price lag models in the year 2030 AD, respectively. It is expected that beef production will grow at a lower rate of 2.0% per annum against past growth rate of 4.6% per annum from 1980-81 to 2011-12. Policy makers of the state may adopt policies to boost beef production in the country. This study draws the attention to set goals to achieve the expected target of beef meat in future to meet the needs of the country.
Keywords: Beef; Pakistan; Prices; Projections; Supply
